Republican’s 2026 Election Schemes Show Danger of National Popular Vote Compact

President Trump has already directed the U.S. Postal Service to interfere with the delivery and return of mail-in ballots in states that don’t run their elections the way he demands. Image credit: jetcityimage - stock.adobe.com

One strength of the Electoral College is that it allows states to administer elections according to their own laws while limiting the national consequences of those differences. But the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) changes that dynamic because every vote cast in every state is supposed to contribute to national tallies that determines the presidency.

It may sound nice in theory, but it incentivizes bad actors to manipulate NPVIC by trying to boost some votes and suppress others. Democrats should consider what Republicans are doing right now in the 2026 elections and be very, very worried about what would happen if this compact ever passes.

For example, President Trump has already directed the U.S. Postal Service to interfere with the delivery and return of mail-in ballots in states that don’t run their elections the way he demands. Imagine him doing the same in a 2028 election run under NPVIC, stopping millions of votes in Democrat-friendly states like California and New York from being cast because the Post Office refused to deliver the ballots!

That’s what Trump is doing right now. What else could he come up with? Professor Akhil Reed Amar, one of three early architects of NPVIC, has warned that the compact incentivizes states to change election rules in ways that increase their influence over the national vote total. Amar cited “Demeny voting” as one option, which allows parents to cast votes on behalf of their minor children. Utah alone could probably add a quarter of a million net votes to a Republican presidential candidate’s national total with Demeny voting, while Texas could add half a million or more to the Republican margin.

A Republican state legislator in Missouri has gone a step further—or, more specifically, nearly five million steps further. HB 3218, filed earlier this year, would treat and report each voter as having cast as many votes as the state has presidential electors. It wouldn’t change the outcome in Missouri, but in 2024 it would have meant Trump receiving 17.5 million popular votes from Missouri instead of 1.75 million, and Kamala Harris would have been reported as receiving 12 million instead of 1.2 million votes. In the end, this legislation would increase a Republican’s national vote total by about five million votes—and because the NPVIC requires member states to accept at face value the vote totals reported by another state, it’s not clear anything could be done to stop this massive inflation in vote totals.

Democrats could respond, of course, just as we have fought back against Trump’s mid-decade gerrymandering schemes. But is this really the path we want to go down, with Democrat-controlled states trying to catch up and counter Republican efforts to rig an NPVIC election with our own schemes?

Democrats have spent generations fighting for fair elections, equal representation, and public confidence in democratic institutions. Any reform proposal should be judged not only by its intentions but also by the incentives it creates. NPVIC incentivizes states to maximize their contribution to the national vote total, and we are already seeing, with Trump’s efforts to suppress mail votes, his mid-decade redistricting campaign, and Missouri’s vote-padding legislation, the lengths which Republicans are willing to go to.

Before embracing NPVIC, Democrats should carefully consider whether a national popular vote system could encourage states to engage in an escalating competition over election rules—ultimately creating new disputes and new threats to public confidence in presidential elections.